Here we will actually estimate the true number of records of both deaths and adverse events related to the Covid-19 vaccines, based on the assumption that the shape of their profiles when plotted over time, will match the curved profile we observe for the vaccination doses administered over time. [Spoiler: 17,737 estimated deaths, 1,328,324 estimated adverse events]

First, we will estimate the deaths:

First, we need to change the x-axis from dates into numerical values from 1 to 189, corresponding to the number of days the jab has been in use. Then we use Excel’s handy polynomial trend-line function to find the equation that best fits the curved profile of the doses administered. This equation is shown above on the chart. Then we essentially map some columns out in Excel: 1 column to contain our Day number values (from 1 to 189), and then 1 column for each of the 6 terms in our polynomial equation, in which we will calculate the value of each of these terms for each corresponding Day number value, as the equation dictates. Then, we add up the 6 terms and place the sum in a final column, our y column. Shown below is what this looks like for the first ten rows and the last ten rows:

Rinse and repeat until day 189, then sum the entire y column. This gives you the area under the curve for the doses administered, which comes out to: 322,491,508. Now, since we are looking for the number of deaths, we have to scale this number proportionally down to its proper size. We can see from the chart that 55 deaths on the y-axis on the right corresponds to 1,000,000 doses administered on the y-axis on the left. Therefore, our scaling reduction factor is 55/1,000,000, or .000055. So we multiply the big figure by our reduction factor, and you get 322,491,508 * .000055 => 17,737, which is our best estimate for the number of deaths related to the Covid-19 vaccines.

Next up is the estimation of adverse events:

Same exact procedure, but with a different set of numbers and a different equation. As before, shown below are the first 10 rows and the last 10 rows in our calculations, with the end result being => 1,328,324, which is our best estimate for the number of adverse events related to the Covid-19 vaccines.

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