There are now videos out there that are gaining a lot of attention which are claiming that VAERS is missing approximately 150K records for Covid-19 vaccines. The basic assumption behind these claims is that if there is a VAERS_ID which falls in between two others and doesn’t contain an actual report, then it must have been a real report which the CDC deleted. So for example, if there are records for VAERS_ID=25001 and VAERS_ID= 25003, but no record exists for VAERS_ID=25002, then the assumption is that the CDC deleted the 25002 record. Essentially, there are ‘gaps’ in the sequential numbering of VAERS_IDs, whereby there are some VAERS_IDs not associated with an actual report, and if so, then the assumption is that the CDC must have deleted the report.

I believe this is a faulty assumption and that you cannot prove that there are missing VAERS reports based on this alone. While it is true that database systems generally do auto-increment IDs by 1, this does not mean there are never gaps in the data…in fact, in most cases there usually are gaps whereby some IDs are ‘skipped’ and do not have data. There may be a number of reasons for this: there could be incorrect data entry which leads to the need to delete an ID, there could be bulk loading processes which need to be undone for whatever reason leading to a whole group of ID deletes, there could be other types of IT-related mistakes that need to be corrected, there could be decisions about cutting off a set of IDs and waiting for the next big round number to resume assigning IDs. There could even be intentional deletes due to planned system testing. The point is, these types of things are all normal occurrences in the management of a database system; there should be no surprise that there are gaps in the IDs.

The earliest record in VAERS is VAERS_ID=25001, and the last record, as of the 6/11/21 data release, is VAERS_ID=1374554. That gives us a universe of 1,349,554 possible VAERS_ID ‘slots’ which reports can be assigned to. Below is a monthly chart showing all the counts of populated vs. ’empty’ VAERS_IDs between 7/1990 (the beginning of all available data) and 10/2020. The blue portion of each monthly bar shows you the percentage of VAERS_ID numbers which were populated with an actual report. The red portion shows you the percentage of VAERS_IDs which were empty (ie. not associated with an actual report). As you can see, for the most part, historically 90%+ of the available VAERS_IDs were populated with real reports and there were not any major ‘gaps’ in the VAERS_IDs. The one big exception is in March of 2000, where there were 15,350 empty VAERS_IDs, outnumbering the 927 populated VAERS_IDs that month by over 16 to 1.

Chart below has actual numeric counts:

The next chart below shows the same type of monthly chart, but this time only for 11/2020-6/2021. As you can see, aside from the sheer volume of reports within the last 6 months as compared to prior history, what is different is that empty VAERS_IDs have also increased significantly, with populated VAERS_IDs comprising closer to around 80% of available VAERS_IDs. The month of May is very noteworthy, which shows 63% of available VAERS_IDs being empty. If we add up the numbers of empty VAERS_IDs from Dec 2020 to Jun 2021, we get 141,107.

So is 141,107 the number of VAERS records related to Covid-19 vaccines that the CDC decided to delete? IMO, NO. There is no way just from the gaps in populated VAERS_IDs, on their own, to substantiate that these were real reports of adverse events which were deleted from the system. There is certainly a greater numbers of empty VAERS_IDs as compared to what we can see historically, but that is not proof that these were actually deleted reports. Could there be a heightened suspicion of the CDC hiding and deleting data? Yes. But is it proof? No.

Instead, if you want to stick with reports that have been provably deleted, you can check this post:

The last thing I’ll say is that it is obvious that there has been a 6-8 week (if not more) backlog of adverse events during which the CDC has likely received many reports but has yet to release them publicly. This post provides more details:

At this point, we can only guess how many VAERS reports are actually missing, but in my estimation, having 100K or more adverse events not yet published is certainly very possible.

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