“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?“

Quick Summary:

• The CDC has been extremely negligent in following its own protocols as far as safety signal analysis for the Covid-19 shots. Their protocols state that they will perform a safety signal analysis on a weekly basis, using something called the Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR).
• As far as anyone knows (and only because of FOIA requests by independent investigators), the CDC had not done the PRR safety signal analysis for the Covid-19 shots prior to March of 2022, which was a full 15 months after the initial rollout. Obviously, you did not hear about any of this, because the CDC didn’t do the safety analysis (or suppressed it).
• The CDC VAERS data for death events for the Covid-19 shots triggered a safety signal for DEATH as early as 1/15/2021, just a month or so after the initial rollout. (At that point in time, there were 181 documented deaths in association with the Covid-19 shots.) Obviously, you did not hear about any of this, because the CDC didn’t do the safety analysis (or suppressed it).
• If the data is age-stratified, the DEATH safety signal was triggered even earlier; as early as 12/30/2020 for 80+ year olds, and as early as 1/8/2021 for the 60-64, 65-79 year olds. Once again, you did not hear about this, because the CDC didn’t do the safety analysis (or suppressed it).
• At a minimum, a further investigation should take place to determine exactly when safety signals were first generated for each of the major symptoms of special interest as identified in their published standard operating procedure (if not for all symptoms).
• It is reasonable to conclude that the CDC has been found shockingly derelict in its duty and role to protect public health, and as such it should be obvious that the CDC should be defunded and dismantled immediately and responsible parties brought to justice.

As the world ought to know by now, the CDC is supposed to monitor its VAERS system for safety signals which provide an early warning sign of potential problems regarding vaccines. Back in December of 2020, a new medical countermeasure for Covid-19 was thrust upon the world, an experimental gene-therapy shot which has since been conclusively shown to cause unprecedented illness, harm, and death. In January of 2021, the CDC published a document titled ”Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) Standard Operating Procedures for COVID-19“, which outlined the procedure it would be following to monitor the safety of these new shots for Covid-19. In section “2.3.1. Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR)” of this document, it clearly states that the “CDC will perform PRR data mining on a weekly basis or as needed.” However, it was not until the various FOIA requests submitted by analysts like Josh Guetzkow (see here and here) and others like Zach Stieber in the independent media (see here), that the question of whether or not the CDC had followed its own published guidelines could be confidently answered. Over the period of several months, those FOIA requests revealed, not surprisingly, that the CDC had prevaricated and obfuscated about whether or not they actually performed the safety signal analyses as outlined in their document. First they said they did, then they said they didn’t, lastly they said did, but didn’t start until March 25, 2022 (which coincidentally was 3 days after Josh requested a follow-up on his FOIA request). This is a full 15 months after the shots were first rolled out. Given all this and the CDC’s horrendous track record over the last couple years when it comes to honesty and transparency, is it unreasonable to assume that without the FOIA requests lighting a fire under its rear end, the CDC would never have even bothered to perform these analyses?

Very recently, as a conclusion to his FOIA requests, Zach Stieber obtained the actual safety signal analysis performed by the CDC for the data between 12/14/20-7/29/22 (see here or here). This document shows a five alarm-fire of blazing safety signals triggering everywhere, 770 signals in just the 18+ demographic, for example. However, what is still a big question mark is how long these signals have actually been blaring throughout the CDC’s deafening silence. Using the CDC’s own methodology, have safety signals only been present since July of 2022 (the end of the date range for the only PRR safety analysis completed thus far by the CDC), or March of 2022 (when the CDC eventually claimed it began its PRR safety analysis), or even September of 2021 (when Josh Guetzkow initially performed the PRR analysis using CDC data obtained through an earlier FOIA request)?

It turns out that, after following the CDC’s published methodology for PRR safety signal analysis, along with rewinding the clock and looking at the VAERS data as it was being published weekly from the very beginning of the roll-out of the Covid-19 shots, there were indeed safety signals that were going off if anyone was actually listening. As defined by the CDC, the requirements that need to be met in order to trigger a valid safety signal, are highlighted below (see here pg. 16):

So basically, a CDC-defined valid safety signal is triggered when all of the following conditions are met:

• a PRR >= 2;
• a Chi-squared statistic >= 4
• at least 3 cases of the adverse event in question

[Note that a discussion of whether the PRR is even a good method to evaluate safety of vaccines (it is not) is beyond the scope of this article.]

Below we will be using US Data from VAERS only. As you can see below, when comparing the Covid-19 shots to all other vaccines combined (without stratifying by age group), an overall safety signal for DEATH was triggered as early as 1/15/2021, basically 1 month after the initial roll-out. The rows highlighted in yellow indicate a valid safety signal.

When you compare the Covid-19 shots to the Flu or Shingrix vaccines (which are suggested as appropriate comparator vaccines in the document), you get safety signals even earlier, on 1/7/2020:

Furthermore, as you can see below, when you break things down by age group, we find that the DEATH safety signal also was triggered earlier. On 12/30/2020, the Covid-19 shots triggered a safety signal for DEATH for those in the 80+ age group. On 1/7/2021, safety signals for DEATH were triggered for age groups above 60. [Note that these early signals being found in the older age groups aligns well with the fact that the initial rollout was targeted primarily to the elderly.]

All the data for the figures above is viewable and downloadable in an excel file linked at the bottom of this post. While the data for the figures above use all of the non-Covid vaccine data available since 1990 for the calculations, the CDC’s own recently released PRR analysis used data only starting from 1/1/2009 as the basis for the non-Covid vaccine data. If we redo these calculations to match the CDC’s 1/1/2009 start date for non-Covid vaccine data, we find that the PRRs for the safety signals increase approximately 40-60%, actually making the Covid shots look worse. Details can be seen in the excel file below.

More needs to be done here. Ideally, at the very least, we should know exactly when the PRR safety signals were first triggered for all of the major symptoms identified as “Adverse Events of Special Interest” in the CDC’s SOP document. The PRR safety signal analysis which is not being done by the CDC can actually be done by anyone who is at least somewhat numerically inclined. The Medalerts.org Wayback Machine (hat’s off to its creator who’s provided such a stellar tool) can rewind time for you so that you can query the VAERS data from the past in its original state as it was being published weekly.

The CDC needs to be defunded and dismantled immediately. The CDC needs to voluntarily abdicate whatever “authority” it thinks it previously had. It is time for the vast and growing numbers of independent and free-thinking scientists/docs, data analysts, and citizen journalists who know what is going on (and who actually have at least an ounce of integrity) to take the reins of public health, as they can do no worse.

At this point, we have a conflagration bigger than any massive forest fire anyone’s ever seen, while the people at the CDC charged with putting out the fire seemingly have their heads planted firmly in the sand or are on permanent siesta. Perhaps a tree that falls in the forest doesn’t make a sound if no one is there to hear it, but when you set a whole forest ablaze with plentiful fuel for the fire, the smoke and smell of destruction and death is eventually noticed…

Here is a spreadsheet showing the data for all the figures above, mostly obtained directly from the Wayback machine, is attached below (data on 4th tab was generated separately).

>> Click Here to read Part 2 — Defund the CDC Part 2: Other Safety Signals Flashing Early On In The Jab Rollout